Design of Monte Carlo Simulation Modeling for Determining Favorite Tourist Places in West Sumatera

Abstract

This study creates a Monte Carlo simulation model to identify top tourist destinations in West Sumatra, Indonesia - a province known for its natural and cultural beauty. Delineating popular tourist sites is crucial for promoting tourism and improving the local industry. Monte Carlo simulation serves as the primary method in this study due to its capacity to handle uncertain and variable data. Using this method, researchers can generate more accurate results when evaluating the most visited tourist hotspots by taking into account factors like scenic beauty, amenities, accessibility, and local culture. The study presents a design model of preferred tourist destinations in West Sumatra, based on visitor statistics from 2019-2022. The obtained model is adept at predicting favored tourist destinations in West Sumatra with a MAPE value of approximately 1.15% and an RMSE of approximately 141.07.  Its design is poised to generate valuable insights for an array of tourism stakeholders comprising local government officials, industry experts, and visitors alike. This will enable them to proactively showcase and experience the diverse tourism offerings West Sumatra has on offer.